Realpolitik in the 21st Century

...Or how its not done in the 21st century.

Mar 19, 2024

“We see the world, not as it is, but as we are──or, as we are conditioned to see it.”

― Stephen R. Covey

This past weekend it was reported from multiple news outlets that the country of Niger in the African continent had informed a delegation from the U.S. State Department that all American military forces were to vacate the nation immediately.

The announcement came from the Niger military junta, a committee of military leaders who have had provisional control of the government since taking power in a coup last summer.

This is a significant blow to US military operations within the continent as reported by Al Jazeera:

The “status of forces” agreement, signed in 2012, allowed about 1,000 US military personnel and civilian defence staff to operate from Niger, which plays a central role in the US military’s operations in the Sahel.
The US military operates Airbase 101 in Niger’s capital, Niamey. Additionally, it operates a major airbase, Airbase 201, near Agadez, a city 920km (572 miles) southwest of Niamey, using it for manned and unmanned surveillance flights and other operations in the Sahel.
Air Base 201 was built from 2016 to 2019 at a cost of more than $100m. The base has been used since 2018 to launch drone operations against armed groups linked to ISIL (ISIS) and al-Qaeda in the Sahel.
“Niger is the centre of US operations in West and North Africa, notably at its Air Base 201,” Al Jazeera’s correspondent Shihab Rattansi said from Washington, DC.
Having a base in the Sahel is important for Washington’s operations against armed groups in the region, “but it’s really there also for great power projection against countries like Russia and China,” Rattansi said.

While announcing the suspension of the pact, Niger military spokesperson Colonel Amadou Abdramane referenced pressure from the US on which countries the nation could partner with.
“Niger regrets the intention of the American delegation to deny the sovereign Nigerien people the right to choose their partners and types of partnerships capable of truly helping them fight against terrorism,” Abdramane said.
He denounced the “condescending attitude” of the US diplomats and said Washington had not followed diplomatic protocol because Niger was not informed about the composition of the delegation, the date of its arrival or its agenda. [Bold for emphasis]

Who were these condescending diplomats?

Those concerns came to a head over the past week, when Molly Phee, U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, traveled to Niamey for talks with the junta on the two countries’ future relations and what the State Department said would be discussions on “Niger’s return to a democratic path.”
Phee was accompanied by Celeste Wallander, a senior Defense Department official, and Gen. Michael Langley, the head of the U.S. Africa Command, the State Department said.
During the meetings, Phee raised Washington’s alarm with officials in Niger about an agreement with Iran, according to officials in the U.S. and Niger, who described the meetings as very tense. Phee also criticized the lack of progress in returning Niger to an elected government and raised U.S. concerns about the imminent arrival of Russian military trainers and equipment.

**African military warlords were not impressed.**

Surely the new U.S. ambassador for Niger should have foreseen how a violent, hyper-masculine Muslim-majority African nation would perceive this delegation, right? Especially after acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland was rebuffed last summer at a meeting with not the leader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tiani, but instead had to conduct an intermediary conference with the general’s underlings. Mrs. Nuland recently announced her retirement from government service.

This ambassador would have to be a hard-nosed, no nonsense person who exudes a commanding presence and sharp negotiation skills. Oh. Never mind.

**This whole situation is starting to make sense now.**

The new U.S. ambassador to Niger, Kathleen FitzGibbon, one of Washington’s top Africa specialists, has held regular discussions with the junta since taking office at the beginning of the year.
In a trip to Niger in December, Molly Phee, an assistant secretary of state for African Affairs, said the United States intended to resume security and development cooperation with Niger, even as she called for a swift transition to civilian rule and the release of Mr. Bazoum.

Realpolitik in practice is the application of diplomacy and geopolitical policy without the baggage of ideological, moral, or ethical considerations. It is a process that requires looking clear-eyed at the objective or desired outcome and doing whatever is needed to achieve the stated goals.

Niger is a country of 25 million that is 99.3% Muslim with a history of having power seized almost every 10 years at the barrel of a gun since gaining independence in 1960. For the U.S. State Department to expect a positive outcome by sending a delegation of women to berate and scold the Nigerien military government was foolhardy and the height of hubris. This was a grave insult to the Africans for a superpower to send this group. The only other conclusion is that this was done on purpose to get kicked out of the country.

I’m sure these U.S. diplomatic officials are well educated1, credentialed, and all have had successful careers within our State and Foreign Service Departments. They’ve gone to the right schools, met the right people for connections and spent the requisite amount of time in each post they have been assigned to faithfully. But this was not a diplomatic post in Sweden or Italy they were dealing with. The cultural rules America has become accustomed to in regards to roles for women in the workplace and hierarchy are foreign concepts in locations like Africa.

Left unsaid in all of this reporting is the fact that over $1 billion dollars spent since 2012 is now down the drain for nothing. Ironic that the military aid and training given to the Niger armed forces utilized said training and financial aid to achieve this latest coup.

Links:

Acting US deputy secretary of state meets with military junta members in Niger

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/07/politics/niger-military-junta-nuland-meeting/index.html

Niger Termination of U.S. Military Ties Followed Accusation of Iran Uranium Deal

https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/niger-once-key-u-s-counterterrorism-ally-ends-military-ties-7db66dbe

Niger Orders American Troops to Leave Its Territory

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/17/world/africa/niger-orders-american-troops-out.html

Did Russia, Iran provoke Niger walkout from US military pact?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/19/did-russia-iran-provoke-niger-walkout-from-us-military-pact

Molly Phee

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Catherine_Phee

Celeste Wallander